My Thoughts on Moderate Members of Congress

My Thoughts on Moderate Members of Congress

There has been a lot of talk lately (on both the conservative and liberal sides) about whether there is room for moderates in each party. And whether there should be room for moderates. Some have argued that moderates should be purged from either party because they don't agree with their party on every issue. Others have argued that moderates help make better policy because they keep the base of their party (liberals for Democrats, and conservatives for Republicans) in line. My opinion is that moderates are extremely beneficial for both parties, and they help keep their party from going overboard. While it is true that moderates may slow down the process of getting legislation passed, in most cases, such delay is due to their constituents wishes, which is what they are sent to Congress to represent.

Contrary to popular perception, there are not enough diehard liberals or diehard conservatives to make up a majority in Congress. Even with the gerrymandering that takes place in forming House districts, there will most likely always be moderate districts. Since neither side is capable of having an outright majority on their own, they must incorporate moderates in order to have a majority.

If the Republican party decided to purge moderate U.S. Senators, they would go from having 40 Senators to 34 Senators. They would lose 6 seats. (I count Voinovich, McCain, Murkowski, Lugar, Snowe, and Collins as moderate senators).

If the Democratic party decided to purge moderate U.S. Senators, they would go from having 60 Senators to 47 Senators. They would lose 13 seats. (I count Bayh, Conrad, Dorgan, Johnson, Landrieu, Lieberman, Lincoln, McCaskill, Nelson, Pryor, Specter, Tester, and Webb as moderate senators).

I consider myself a moderate liberal. Even I am willing to admit and accept that a Democrat from California is likely to be far more liberal than a Democrat from Arkansas. Therefore, it is not fair to begrudge moderates of either party for the fact that they are moderates. This is because in most cases, they are merely representing their constituents.

2008 Presidential Election - Exit Poll Map - Rural Voters

The following map shows how rural voters in each state voted. Obama won rural voters in states colored blue. McCain won rural voters in states colored red. There was not a statistically significant number of rural voters in states colored grey.

Obama won rural voters in 16 states, including 2 states that he didnt even win overall (South Dakota, South Carolina). McCain won rural voters in 27 states, including 8 states that he didnt even win overall (Nevada, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida). There was not statistically significant data for 7 states (California, Utah, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, Rhode Island, Massachusetts).

This exit poll data is from CNN.

2008 Presidential Election - Exit Poll Map - Young Voters (18-29 years old)

The following map shows how young voters in each state voted. Obama won young voters in states colored blue. McCain won young voters in states colored red.

Obama won young voters in 42 states, including 14 states that he didnt even win overall (Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina). McCain won young voters in 8 states, all of which he won overall.

This exit poll data is from CNN.

2008 Presidential Election - Exit Poll Map - Suburban Voters

The following map shows how suburban voters in each state voted. Obama won suburban voters in states colored blue. McCain won suburban voters in states colored red. There was not a statistically significant number of suburban voters in states colored grey.

Obama won suburban voters in 27 states, all of which he won overall. McCain won suburban voters in 23 states, including 3 states he didnt even win overall (Minnesota, Indiana, North Carolina). There was not statistically significant data for 2 states (Montana, Wyoming).

This exit poll data is from CNN.

2008 Presidential Election - Exit Poll Map - Independent Voters

The following map shows how independent voters in each state voted. Obama won independent voters in states colored blue. McCain won independent voters in states colored red.

Obama won independent voters in 30 states, including 3 states that he didnt even win overall (Arizona, Nebraska, Kansas). McCain won independent voters in 20 states, all of which he won overall.

This exit poll data is from CNN.

2008 Presidential Election - Exit Poll Map - Male Voters

The following map shows how male voters in each state voted. Obama won male voters in states colored blue. McCain won male voters in states colored red.

Obama won male voters in 25 states, all of which he won overall. McCain won male voters in 25 states, including 3 states that he didnt even win overall (Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina).

This exit poll data is from CNN.

2008 Presidential Election - Exit Poll Map - Female Voters

The following map shows how female voters in each state voted. Obama won female voters in states colored blue. McCain won female voters in states colored red.

Obama won female voters in 31 states, including 3 states that he didnt even win overall (Montana, Missouri, Georgia). McCain won female voters in 19 states, all of which he won overall.

This exit poll data is from CNN.

My Analysis of How Barack Obama Won

My Analysis of How Barack Obama Won

In this analysis I am going to lay out why I think Obama won the election. First, I am going to analyze the overall campaign and the factors that I believe led to the results on election night. Second, I am going to do a state by state analysis of exactly how Obama or McCain won 15 battleground states (Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Michigan).

Overall Campaign
To say that the odds were stacked up against John McCain winning the 2008 Presidential election is true, but in my opinion, John McCain (during the primary campaign) seemed like the only Republican who had any chance of winning the general election. What I believe happened to John McCain is that his maverick image and record stood in stark contrast to his positions during the primary campaign, with several exceptions. For example, McCain voted against and vigorously opposed the Bush tax cuts; yet during the primary campaign he said that he would want to make the tax cuts that he opposed permanent.

During the Democratic primary campaign, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton fought tooth and nail till the very last primary. While many Democrats, including myself, were worried that such a long primary might drag on and result in a split within the party; it actually did the opposite. The long primary battle allowed for both Obama and Clinton to travel to states that a Democratic candidate would have never bothered visiting during a presidential election year. It is not a coincidence that Obama ended up winning several of those states later in the general election.

It is my belief that while Sarah Palin provided a well-needed boost of energy and excitement to the McCain campaign, after that wore off she proved to be more of a negative than a positive. It is important to say that this is not entirely the fault of Sarah Palin or John McCain, but rather it is the fault of various campaign officials who did not adequately prepare Palin for several of her high-profile interviews.

The economic crisis was the event that I believe had the most significant impact on the outcome of the election. McCain’s first comments on the economic crisis were that “the fundamentals of the economy are strong.” The Obama campaign jumped on that statement and used it to show that McCain truly doesn’t understand the hardships of everyday Americans.


Missouri – 11 Electoral Votes, 49.4% McCain; 49.3% Obama
Missouri was the closest state in the 2008 election, with McCain winning by only 3,903 votes. Obama/Biden made 20 visits in 11 counties; McCain/Palin made 13 visits in 7 counties. Obama almost won MO by racking up large margins in the large cities of St. Louis and Kansas City. He won St. Louis City 84%-15%, St. Louis county (which surrounds the city of St. Louis) 60%-40%, and Kansas City (62%-37%). Obama also won Columbia (55%-43%), St. Joseph (Buchanan county; 49.1%-49%), as well as some suburban and rural areas south of the St. Louis area. My opinion on why Obama lost MO is that it was merely a fluke.

North Carolina – 15 Electoral Votes, 50% Obama; 49.5% McCain
North Carolina has not been considered competitive in a presidential election campaign since 1996, yet it became one of the Obama campaign’s highest targets in 2008. Obama won NC by 14,177 votes. Obama/Biden made 15 visits in 7 counties; McCain/Palin made 7 visits in 7 counties. Obama managed to win NC by winning in nearly every major city in the state, and in most cases winning by a large margin. Obama won Charlotte (62-38), Raleigh (57-42), Greensboro (59-41), Asheville (57-43), and Fayetteville (59-41). Motivation was the key ingredient that helped Obama win NC, the Obama campaign successfully motivated latent Democrats, Independents, younger voters, and people who wouldn’t have normally voted at all to vote; and to vote for Obama.

Indiana – 11 Electoral Votes, 50% Obama; 49% McCain
Indiana had not been competitive in a presidential election campaign since 1996, yet it became a state the Obama campaign wanted to at least make competitive, if not win. Obama won IN by 28,391 votes. Obama/Biden made 8 visits in 7 counties; McCain/Palin made 5 visits in 4 counties. Obama managed to win IN by racking up large margins in Indianapolis (64-35) and Gary [which borders Chicago] (67-33). The Chicago media market, which includes a large chunk of northwestern Indiana, helped Obama significantly because they were already familiar with Obama before the presidential campaign. Obama’s IN victory would not have been possible if he had not won several other cities like South Bend (58-41), Lafayette (55-44), and Terre Haute (57-42).

Florida – 27 Electoral Votes, 51% Obama; 48% McCain
Florida is one of those perennial battleground states, and 2008 was no exception. Obama won FL by 236,450 votes. Obama/Biden made 37 visits in 17 counties. McCain/Palin made 33 visits in 17 counties. Obama was able to win FL by winning in the major battleground cities of Orlando (59-40), Tampa (51-48), St. Petersburg (54-46), and Daytona Beach (52-47). Obama also managed to win handily in Miami (58-42). Obama also was able to remain competitive in other cities like Sarasota (50% McCain-50% Obama), and Jacksonville (50% McCain-49% Obama).

Ohio – 20 Electoral Votes, 52% Obama; 47% McCain
Ohio is another one of those perpetual battleground states and both campaigns knew that without Ohio, they probably couldn’t win. Obama won OH by 258,897 votes. Obama/Biden made 42 visits in 23 counties [Obama/Biden visited OH more than any other state]. McCain/Palin made 51 visits in 30 counties [McCain/Palin also visited OH more than any other state]. Obama won OH because he won all the major cities. Obama won Cleveland (69-30), Columbus (59-40), Cincinnati (52-47), Dayton (52-47), Toledo (65-34), Akron (58-41), and Youngstown (62-36). While Obama did not do as well in southeast OH as past Democratic presidential candidates, he did manage to hold his own, and made up those votes by winning rural counties in northwestern OH and along Lake Erie.

Virginia – 13 Electoral Votes, 53% Obama; 46% McCain
Virginia had not been a battleground state since 1996, yet the Obama campaign was determined to win it. Obama won VA by 234,527 votes. Obama/Biden made 27 visits in 18 counties [in VA, there are both counties and independent cities; I am simply calling them counties]. McCain/Palin made 11 visits in 8 counties. The Obama campaign set out to make VA a game-changer for the election. They succeeded because they constantly visited throughout the entire campaign. Obama’s first town hall as the Democratic nominee was in Bristol, VA, and his last rally was in Manassas, VA. Obama won VA several ways. First, by racking up huge margins in the DC area (Fairfax county [60-39], Prince William county [58-42], Loudoun county [54-46]). Second, by winning Norfolk (71-28), Chesapeake (50-49), Suffolk (54-45), and Portsmouth (69-30). Along with the major cities, Obama also managed to win smaller cities like Charlottesville, Martinsville, and Danville.

Colorado – 9 Electoral Votes, 54% Obama; 45% McCain
Colorado has become more of a battleground with each election since 1992, and the Obama campaign made it a point to target the state early. Obama won CO by 214,987 votes. Obama/Biden made 14 visits in 8 counties. McCain/Palin made 18 visits in 8 counties. The Obama campaign knew that if it could win the suburbs of Denver, that it could win the state. Obama won CO because he was able to win all the Denver suburbs (Adams county [58-40], Arapahoe county [55-43], and Jefferson county [54-45]) and many rural areas such as Durango (57-41), Gunnison (63-35), and Aspen (66-33). Obama also won Fort Collins (54-44) and Pueblo (56-42).

Iowa – 7 Electoral Votes, 54% Obama; 45% McCain
Iowa, with its caucuses during the primaries, has been a battleground state for decades, and it was the state that gave Obama his first significant victory in the primaries. Obama won IA by 146,561 votes. Obama/Biden made 5 visits in 3 counties. McCain/Palin made 10 visits in 6 counties. Obama capitalized on his victory in the IA caucuses in order to win the state in the general election. A major factor why Obama was favored to win IA throughout the whole general election campaign was because McCain had skipped the IA caucuses during the Republican primaries. Obama was able to win IA because he won its most populated areas and many of the rural areas in eastern IA. Obama won Des Moines (56-42), Cedar Rapids (60-39), Davenport (57-42), Dubuque (56-39), and Waterloo (61-38).

New Hampshire – 4 Electoral Votes, 54% Obama; 45% McCain
New Hampshire, like Iowa, has been a battleground state for decades because it holds the first primary of every election cycle, and while Obama didn’t win the NH primary, the loss taught the Obama campaign that they can take nothing for granted. Obama won NH by 68,292 votes. Obama/Biden made 8 visits in 5 counties. McCain/Palin made 8 visits in 5 counties. Obama was able to win every county in NH, which is quite a feat considering, that McCain has a long successful history with NH. Obama barely won the battleground cities of Manchester/Nashua (51-48), and Portsmouth (50-49); but Obama made up for it by winning large margins in most of the rest of the state, which is primarily rural.

Minnesota – 10 Electoral Votes, 54% Obama; 44% McCain
Minnesota has gone back and forth from being a battleground state to a securely Democratic state. Obama won MN by 297,945 votes. Obama/Biden only made 1 visit. McCain/Palin made 6 visits to 3 counties. The McCain campaign tried to lure the Obama campaign to spend valuable money and time in MN, needless to say that the Obama campaign didn’t fall for it. Obama won many rural areas throughout MN, winning many of the counties bordering North and South Dakota, and many bordering Canada. Obama also won the battleground city of Rochester (51-48), as well as many of the suburbs of Minneapolis/St. Paul (Dakota county [52-47] and Washington county [51-47]).

Pennsylvania – 21 Electoral Votes, 55% Obama; 44% McCain
Pennsylvania has a long history of being a battleground state because of its mixture of urban, suburban, and rural populations. Obama won PA by 624,551 votes. Obama/Biden made 21 visits in 13 counties. McCain/Palin made 40 visits in 22 counties. The McCain campaign pretty much bet the whole campaign on PA, blanketing the state with visits and advertising. They underestimated how much and how quickly the PA political landscape had changed. During the Democratic primary contest in PA between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, approximately 600,000 people registered as Democrats in order to vote in the primary. While Obama did lose the PA primary (55% Clinton-45% Obama), the contest did create new Democratic voters. McCain thought he could peel away some of those Hillary Clinton supporters, and while he probably did, he didn’t peel away enough to make any headway. The major battleground area in PA is the large suburbs of Philadelphia, Obama won all the suburban Philadelphia counties (Bucks county [54-45], Montgomery county [60-39], Delaware county [60-39], and Chester county [54-45]).

Nevada – 5 Electoral Votes, 56% Obama; 43% McCain
Nevada has been a battleground state since 1992, mainly because of its growing population. Obama won NV by 120,909 votes. Obama/Biden made 10 visits in 3 counties. McCain/Palin made 10 visits in 4 counties. There are pretty much only 2 significantly populated areas in NV, Las Vegas and Reno. Reno is typically the battleground area. Obama managed to win NV because he won both Las Vegas (58-40) and Reno (55-43). A major component to the victory was the large and growing Hispanic population throughout the state.

Wisconsin – 10 Electoral Votes, 56% Obama; 42% McCain
Wisconsin is another one of those eternal battleground states, mainly because its population is mostly rural. Obama won WI by 414,818 votes. Obama/Biden made 7 visits to 5 counties. McCain/Palin made 13 visits to 8 counties. WI has typically been one of the closest states in presidential elections, however Obama’s ties to Chicago and more importantly the Midwest probably propelled Obama to win more handily than he would have otherwise. Obama won WI by winning most of the rural areas, and the battleground areas of Green Bay (54-45), Oshkosh (55-43), Appleton (55-43), and Wausau (54-45).

New Mexico – 5 Electoral Votes, 57% Obama; 42% McCain
New Mexico has been a battleground state since 1988, mainly because of its population growth and large rural population. Obama won NM by 125,590 votes. Obama/Biden made 6 visits in 3 counties. McCain/Palin made 9 visits in 3 counties. Like Nevada, New Mexico has a large and growing Hispanic population, the overwhelming majority of which voted for Obama. There are pretty much only 3 areas with a significant population in NM (all of which voted for Obama), Albuquerque (60-39), Santa Fe (77-22), and Las Cruces (58-41). Those cities, along with a decent showing in rural areas propelled Obama to win by such a large margin.

Michigan – 17 Electoral Votes, 57% Obama; 41% McCain
Michigan has a long history of being a battleground state because of its working-class population, and its mixture of urban, suburban, and rural areas. Obama won MI by 823,940 votes. Obama/Biden made 19 visits in 8 counties. McCain/Palin made 8 visits in 3 counties. I believe the McCain campaign made one of its most significant tactical errors when it decided at the beginning of October that it would basically give up on MI. The campaign closed all but several offices and stopped all advertising. No other Republican presidential candidate in recent history has completely abandoned MI before. Needless to say, the Obama campaign capitalized on this and therefore scored a major victory. By giving up on MI, the McCain campaign lost many suburban Detroit voters, which consequently voted for Obama. Obama won all of the major cities in MI, including the typically Republican stronghold of Grand Rapids (49-48).

2008 Campaign Event Map - John McCain/Sarah Palin

The following map highlights the counties that John McCain and/or Sarah Palin held a campaign event during the general election campaign. A campaign event is an event which is open to the public and announced in advance.

McCain/Palin held 267 campaign events in 157 counties, and 28 states. McCain/Palin won 60 out of the 157 counties which they visited (38%).

Note: In Virginia, unlike other states, is organized into both independent cities and counties. In order for campaign visits to be visible, I highlighted the surrounding county around the city which was visited.

2008 Campaign Event Map - Barack Obama/Joe Biden

The following map highlights the counties that Barack Obama and/or Joe Biden held a campaign event during the general election campaign. A campaign event is an event which is open to the public and announced in advance.

Obama/Biden held 262 campaign events in 148 counties and 26 states. Obama/Biden won 106 out of the 148 counties which they visited (72%).

Note: In Virginia, unlike other states, is organized into both independent cities and counties. In order for campaign visits to be visible, I highlighted the surrounding county around the city which was visited.

2008 Campaign Event Map - Sarah Palin

The following map highlights the counties that Sarah Palin held a campaign event during the general election campaign. A campaign event is an event which is open to the public and announced in advance. For example, Sarah Palin making a surprise appearance at a local small business is not counted; a rally, town hall, speech, or other official campaign event is counted.

Palin had 103 campaign events in 92 counties, and 20 states. Palin won 39 out of the 92 counties which she visited (42%).

Note: In Virginia, unlike other states, is organized into both independent cities and counties. In order for campaign visits to be visible, I highlighted the surrounding county around the city which was visited.

2008 Campaign Event Map - John McCain

The following map highlights the counties that John McCain held a campaign event during the general election campaign. A campaign event is an event which is open to the public and announced in advance. For example, John McCain holding a press conference is not counted as a campaign event; a rally, town hall, speech, or other official campaign event is counted.

McCain had 167 campaign events in 107 counties, and 25 states. McCain won 33 out of the 107 counties which he visited (31%).

Note: Note: In Virginia, unlike other states, is organized into both independent cities and counties. In order for campaign visits to be visible, I highlighted the surrounding county around the city which was visited.

2008 Campaign Event Map - Joe Biden

The following map highlights the counties that Joe Biden held a campaign event during the general election campaign. A campaign event is an event which is open to the public and announced in advance. For example, Joe Biden making a surprise visit to a local factory is not counted as a campaign event; a rally, town hall, speech or other official campaign event is counted.

Biden had 96 campaign events in 83 counties, and 20 states. Biden won 58 out of the 83 counties in which he visited (70%).

Note: In Virginia, unlike other states, is organized into both independent cities and counties. In order for campaign visits to be visible, I highlighted the surrounding county around the city which was visited.

2008 Campaign Event Map - Barack Obama

The following map highlights the counties that Barack Obama held a campaign event during the general election campaign. A campaign event is an event which is open to the public and announced in advance. For example, Barack Obama making a surprise visit to a diner is not counted as a campaign event; a rally, town hall, speech or other official campaign event is counted.

Obama had 166 campaign events in 110 counties, and 22 states. Obama won 84 of the 110 counties which he visited (76%).

Note: In Virginia, unlike other states, is organized into both independent cities and counties. In order for campaign visits to be visible, I highlighted the surrounding county around the city which was visited.

Current US House Map (by State Delegation)

The following map shows the current party breakdown of the United States House of Representatives from each state. States colored red have more Republican representatives in the House than Democratic representatives. States colored blue have more Democratic representatives in the House than Republican representatives. The current breakdown of state delegations is that there are 16 states have a Republican majority in their delegation, 33 states have a Democratic majority in their delegation, and 1 state (Idaho) has an even split between both parties. Some states (7 states) only have 1 representative, those states are the following:

States with only 1 House member

Alaska (Republican)
Montana (Republican)

Wyoming (Republican)

North Dakota (Democrat)

South Dakota (Democrat)

Delaware (Republican)

Vermont (Democrat)

Analysis

This map is slightly deceiving because of the 7 states that only have 1 House member each. Although even those 7 states are interesting in that North and South Dakota are both represented by a Democrat, which is notable because neither of these states have been competitive in Presidential elections (with the exception of 2008). It is also notable that Delaware is represented by a Republican, when the surrounding area is primarily represented by Democrats. Of the states that have more than 1 house member, there are not very many surprises in the map, however there are some. One of those surprises is Mississippi, which is the only state in the deep south (besides Arkansas, which has a long history of a strong Democratic party) that has a majority Democratic delegation. While MS only has 4 representatives, the fact that 3 of them are Democrats is quite an achievement. It may be striking for some that Arkansas and Tennessee are colored blue, but it is important to point out that most of the Democrats in the south are moderate Democrats, which is why they are able to represent such conservative areas.

Current Governorships Map

The following map is of the current Governors of the 50 States. States colored blue have Democratic governors. States colored red have Republican governors. This map is current as of November 20, 2009.

Analysis

The most notable thing about this map is that no region is completely dominated by either party. The south (depending on how you define the south) still has Democratic governors, in Tennessee, North Carolina and Arkansas. Even in the northeast, where there are few Republicans elected for federal office, there are still Republican governors, in Vermont, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. The significance of this map is that it proves that even if a political party has no chance of winning in Presidential races, or even congressional races, they may still be competitive in gubernatorial races.

2008 Presidential Election Results by County - Margin of Victory Map

The following map shows all of the counties in the United States. Counties colored dark blue were won by Barack Obama by at least a 10% margin. Counties colored light blue were won by Barack Obama by less than 10%. Counties colored dark red were won by John McCain by at least a 10% margin. Counties colored pink were won by John McCain by less than 10%.

Analysis
Several things are notable about this map. One of the most apparent, and least surprising, is that most of the close counties (those colored light blue or pink) were in either rural areas or were suburbs of landslide counties (those colored dark blue or dark red). This is most obvious in the midwest, especially in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. In those states there were a lot of rural and suburban counties that either went narrowly to Obama or narrowly to McCain. It is not surprising that suburbs were battlegrounds in this election because they have been battlegrounds in past elections as well. The suburbs of major cities are very important for a candidate to win because of the large number of people that live there. The suburbs of the following cities were battleground areas: Denver, Albuquerque, Portland (Oregon), Minneapolis, Kansas City, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Detroit, Toledo, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Houston, Atlanta, Raleigh, Virginia Beach.

Current U.S. Senate Map

The following map shows the party affiliation of all 100 Senators. This map is current as of July 20, 2009. States colored Blue have 2 Democratic Senators (or 2 Senators who caucus with the Democrats, in the case of Connecticut and Vermont). States colored Red have 2 Republican Senators. States colored Purple have 1 Democratic and 1 Republican Senator.

There are 59 Democratic Senators and 41 Republican Senators.

Analysis

While it has been widely noted that since Democrats had 60 seats in the Senate, and had a filibuster-proof majority. This changed after the Massachusetts special senate election in January 2010, where the Republican won. In theory, that is correct, however it is important to remember that not every member of either the Democratic party or the Republican party is always going to vote in unison with their party. For example, many of the Democratic Senators that make up that total of 60 are moderate Democrats, who represent more conservative states than other Democratic Senators. In my opinion, while it may seem as though Democrats should be able to accomplish whatever they want (due to their 59-seat majority), that is not the case. In fact, moderate Democrats (and moderate Republicans) actually hold the power in the U.S. Senate.

An interesting thing about the map is that most of the purple states are also battleground states in Presidential Elections.

2008 Presidential Election Results Map

The following is a map of the United States. States colored blue were won by Barack Obama and states colored Red were won by John McCain.

Barack Obama won 28 states and DC (365 Electoral Votes), John McCain won 22 states (173 Electoral Votes). Note: Obama won one of Nebraska's 5 Electoral Votes because NE divides its electoral votes by congressional district, and Obama won the Omaha district.

On June 21, 2008, I had posted on this blog my analysis of how the states would vote in the general election (My Electoral College Outlook). As election day got closer, the map changed. What I find most interesting is that I had put Indiana and North Carolina in the Solid Republican category, on election day both of these states voted for Obama (narrowly).

2008 Presidential Election Results by County

The following is a map of all counties in the United States. Counties colored blue were won by Barack Obama and counties colored Red were won by John McCain.

Analysis

There are several notable aspects to this map. One of the most striking is the solid blue that covers all of the northeast, except for one county in Maine. It is also worth mentioning the solid blue along the border between Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota. This (mostly rural) area was usually divided, rather than all counties going to one party. Republicans made progress in Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Kentucky. The black belt (which stretches from the Arkansas border with Mississippi to the Virginia Beach area) remained largely intact for the Democrats.