2010 Senate Elections Overview

2010 Senate Elections Overview

The following map is of the U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2010. States colored blue have a Democratic seat up for election. States colored red have a Republican seat up for election. States colored purple have both a Democratic and Republican seat up for election. There is a listing of the seats up for election in 2010. Next to each state, there is the name of the current senator and the percentage they recieved in their last election Open seats are noted as such.

Democratic Seats (17)

1. Indiana - Bayh, 62%

2. Colorado - Bennet, Appointed

3. California - Boxer, 58%

4. Illinois - Burris, Appointed, Open Seat

5. Connecticut - Dodd, 66%, Open Seat

6. North Dakota - Dorgan, 68%, Open Seat

7. Wisconsin - Feingold, 55%

8. Hawaii - Inouye, 73%

9. Vermont - Leahy, 71%

10. Arkansas - Lincoln, 56%

11. Maryland - Mikulski, 65%

12. Washington - Murray, 55%

13. Nevada - Reid, 61%

14. New York - Schumer, 71%

15. Pennsylvania - Specter, 53% [Elected as a Republican]

16. New York - Gillibrand, Appointed

17. Oregon - Wyden, 64%

Republican Seats (18)

1. Utah - Bennett, 68%

2. Missouri - Bond, 56%, Open Seat

3. Kansas - Brownback, 69%, Open Seat

4. Kentucky - Bunning, 51%, Open Seat

5. North Carolina - Burr, 52%

6. Oklahoma - Coburn, 53%

7. Idaho - Crapo, Uncontested

8. South Carolina - DeMint, 54%

9. Iowa - Grassley, 70%

10. New Hampshire - Gregg, 66%, Open Seat

11. Georgia - Isakson, 58%

12. Florida - LeMieux, Appointed, Open Seat

13. Arizona - McCain, 77%

14. Alaska - Murkowski, 49%

15. Alabama - Shelby, 68%

16. South Dakota - Thune, 51%

17. Louisiana - Vitter, 51%

18. Ohio - Voinovich, 64%, Open Seat

Analysis

The 2010 midterm elections will be the first barometer of how the American people feel since Obama's election in 2008. That being said, Obama himself is not so much to credit or blame for whatever the results may be in 2010 because for the most part these races will be decided based on the concerns of that state. In order for Democrats to hold onto their 59 seat majority in the Senate, they need to either keep all of their seats within the Democratic party or pick up at least as many Republican seats as they lose.

The best opportunities for Democrats are (in no particular order): Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Louisiana, and Ohio. Of these, the races the Democrats should focus their energy on are New Hampshire and Ohio. Kentucky is included because of the fact that it is an open seat and Democrats are likely to nominate a moderate candidate, and Louisiana is included because Democrats are likely to put forth a popular moderate candidate. The best opportunities for Republicans are (in no particular order): North Dakota, Arkansas, Nevada, and Colorado. Of these, the races Republicans should focus their energy on are North Dakota and Arkansas. Republicans are almost certain to win North Dakota because they are expected to pick the current popular governor to run, and Democrats have no prominent candidates up to this point.

My Thoughts on Moderate Members of Congress

My Thoughts on Moderate Members of Congress

There has been a lot of talk lately (on both the conservative and liberal sides) about whether there is room for moderates in each party. And whether there should be room for moderates. Some have argued that moderates should be purged from either party because they don't agree with their party on every issue. Others have argued that moderates help make better policy because they keep the base of their party (liberals for Democrats, and conservatives for Republicans) in line. My opinion is that moderates are extremely beneficial for both parties, and they help keep their party from going overboard. While it is true that moderates may slow down the process of getting legislation passed, in most cases, such delay is due to their constituents wishes, which is what they are sent to Congress to represent.

Contrary to popular perception, there are not enough diehard liberals or diehard conservatives to make up a majority in Congress. Even with the gerrymandering that takes place in forming House districts, there will most likely always be moderate districts. Since neither side is capable of having an outright majority on their own, they must incorporate moderates in order to have a majority.

If the Republican party decided to purge moderate U.S. Senators, they would go from having 40 Senators to 34 Senators. They would lose 6 seats. (I count Voinovich, McCain, Murkowski, Lugar, Snowe, and Collins as moderate senators).

If the Democratic party decided to purge moderate U.S. Senators, they would go from having 60 Senators to 47 Senators. They would lose 13 seats. (I count Bayh, Conrad, Dorgan, Johnson, Landrieu, Lieberman, Lincoln, McCaskill, Nelson, Pryor, Specter, Tester, and Webb as moderate senators).

I consider myself a moderate liberal. Even I am willing to admit and accept that a Democrat from California is likely to be far more liberal than a Democrat from Arkansas. Therefore, it is not fair to begrudge moderates of either party for the fact that they are moderates. This is because in most cases, they are merely representing their constituents.

Current U.S. Senate Map

The following map shows the party affiliation of all 100 Senators. This map is current as of July 20, 2009. States colored Blue have 2 Democratic Senators (or 2 Senators who caucus with the Democrats, in the case of Connecticut and Vermont). States colored Red have 2 Republican Senators. States colored Purple have 1 Democratic and 1 Republican Senator.

There are 59 Democratic Senators and 41 Republican Senators.

Analysis

While it has been widely noted that since Democrats had 60 seats in the Senate, and had a filibuster-proof majority. This changed after the Massachusetts special senate election in January 2010, where the Republican won. In theory, that is correct, however it is important to remember that not every member of either the Democratic party or the Republican party is always going to vote in unison with their party. For example, many of the Democratic Senators that make up that total of 60 are moderate Democrats, who represent more conservative states than other Democratic Senators. In my opinion, while it may seem as though Democrats should be able to accomplish whatever they want (due to their 59-seat majority), that is not the case. In fact, moderate Democrats (and moderate Republicans) actually hold the power in the U.S. Senate.

An interesting thing about the map is that most of the purple states are also battleground states in Presidential Elections.